Reading through the Gazette I came across a letter by Cllrs
Fenner and Poole relating to the Boundary Commission’s review of Parliamentary
seats. I could have sworn I’d heard it before and yep, I had. It was published
on Thanet Press Release’s website on the 6th November. Todays letter
is the same statement, therefore Im assuming that their view has not changed
and they are sticking to what they said before. Their proposal is:
“the inclusion of the Margate Wards of Westbrook and Garlinge
and keeping Salmestone in the proposed new constituency of Margate &
Ramsgate”
OK. Lets look at the proposed boundaries for Herne Bay and
Margate & Ramsgate. What doesn’t ring true with the quote? Yep, Salmestone
is ALREADY part of the proposed Margate & Ramsgate seat.
The letter makes mention of the “whole Margate community”
and that it "must" be included in the Margate/Ramsgate seat. Given the old
Margate boundaries included Westgate as well this proposal falls because the
seat would be too large to meet the Boundary Commission's criteria, even if Sandwich was moved to the Herne Bay seat. Labour
makes criticisms that Margate "must not be split" and yet Labour knows that
they have to accept the splitting of Margate. One Labour Councillor in Margate has publicly accepted this as being the case.
Of course if Labour is serious about the “whole Margate community” being part of Margate/Ramsgate, would they please suggest which
Ramsgate ward they would drop, so that the residents can make their own
feelings known.
The reason why they made this press release? They were
attacking Laura Sandys for making public her view that she would prefer to keep
Little Stour and Ashstone in the Margate/Ramsgate seat at maybe the expense of
Salmestone. Odd, since this is a public consultation. Just because she has said
this does not mean the proposed seats are automatically changed. It’s based on ALL
the information that gets sent to the Review not just the resident MP’s. Everyone
is entitled to their opinion, whether the Labour leadership agrees with it or
not.
The Maths (update 18:20):
The proposed Herne Bay seat contains 78,999 voters compared to Margate/Ramsgate with 74,173. According to last years District elections the key wards have the following electorates:
Westbrook 3059
Garlinge 3453
Sandwich 5600
Westgate On Sea 5079
If Westbrook and Garlinge are exchanged for Sandwich, Herne Bay will have 78,087 voters and Margate/Ramsgate will have 75,085 voters. If Westgate moves from Herne Bay to Margate/Ramsgate, Herne Bay will have 73,008 voters compared to Margate/Ramsgate's 80,164.
Looking at the "rules", a constituency needs to have between 72,810 and 80,473 voters (5% either side of 76,641-the electoral quota). While the final figures fit with this, there are two reasons why I wouldn't advocate the Westgate switch. Firstly each constituency needs to have similar numbers of electors and with such a large difference in voters it defeats the purpose of the review. Secondly Cllr Will Scobie posted analysis on the apparent loss of 1,400 voters from Margate Central and Cliftonville West wards in the last four years therefore there should be a reluctance to push towards the upper limit. With this being the case its best that Westgate stay with Herne Bay seat, even if that means splitting Margate.
I hope the above might shed some light onto the maths involved. While I would be delighted to fit Westgate in the proposed Margate/Ramsgate seat, the above doesn't justify the move.
The Maths (update 18:20):
The proposed Herne Bay seat contains 78,999 voters compared to Margate/Ramsgate with 74,173. According to last years District elections the key wards have the following electorates:
Westbrook 3059
Garlinge 3453
Sandwich 5600
Westgate On Sea 5079
If Westbrook and Garlinge are exchanged for Sandwich, Herne Bay will have 78,087 voters and Margate/Ramsgate will have 75,085 voters. If Westgate moves from Herne Bay to Margate/Ramsgate, Herne Bay will have 73,008 voters compared to Margate/Ramsgate's 80,164.
Looking at the "rules", a constituency needs to have between 72,810 and 80,473 voters (5% either side of 76,641-the electoral quota). While the final figures fit with this, there are two reasons why I wouldn't advocate the Westgate switch. Firstly each constituency needs to have similar numbers of electors and with such a large difference in voters it defeats the purpose of the review. Secondly Cllr Will Scobie posted analysis on the apparent loss of 1,400 voters from Margate Central and Cliftonville West wards in the last four years therefore there should be a reluctance to push towards the upper limit. With this being the case its best that Westgate stay with Herne Bay seat, even if that means splitting Margate.
I hope the above might shed some light onto the maths involved. While I would be delighted to fit Westgate in the proposed Margate/Ramsgate seat, the above doesn't justify the move.